​​​​PLAYOFF PERCENTILES STEP 4:

Under Play Like Who the Pt/gm ratio required was calculated for making Division Playoffs and the Wild Card for each team based on their Division and Conference.


Instead of presenting another Table with lots of data the analysis is confined to teams currently out of a Playoff spot (based on 40 game point).


East

Columbus, Buffalo, Carolina and Toronto - In order to make it as a Division participant they will have to play like a NHL Top 5 Team the rest of the way, Wild Card like a Top 8 Team.   Prediction - Not This Year.


Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Ottawa- To make it in the Divisions they will have to play as a Top 9 NHL Team, Wild Card like a Top 10 Team:  Prediction - 2 of these 4 Teams makes the Playoffs.


West 


Anaheim, Calgary, Vancouver and Edmonton - The huge between the Pacific and Central means that it is easier to make it in the Division.  Except for Edmonton if any of these teams plays like a Top 10 team (in a 30 team league) they will make it.  Prediction - Defying their horrible start Anaheim proves it is a Top 10 team and makes the playoffs.


 Colorado and Winnipeg - Winnipeg has to match Dallas's 40 Pt/gm pace to make it in Division or slightly St. Louis's, Minnesota, Chicago's tied first half effort to make the Wild Card (no further comment needed) while Colorado has a slightly better chance than the Jets for the Wild Card.  Prediction - Jets GM on the Hot Seat, Patrick misses again but gets a Get out of Jail card because he is Patrick.

​​​​​​​PLAY LIKE WHO? 

Each teams Pt/gm Ratio for 40 games followed by Play Like Who team for Divisional Who (DW) Spot & Conference  Wild Card Who (WCW) - Pt/gm Ratios needed to qualify then shown.


Atlantic - 97 - Metro -99 - East WC - 93
Central - 103 - Pacific - 86 - West WC - 93


DTeamPt/gm DW  WCC  DPt/gm   WCPt/gm  
MWAS1.58BUFCBJ0.860.71
MNYI1.23NYRTB1.191.04
MNYR1.20NYIPIT1.21

1.07

WCNJD1.13FLAMON1.291.14
MPHI1.08FLANYR1.331.19
MPIT1.08FLANYR1.331.19
MCAR0.98WASFLA1.431.29
MCBJ0.83WASFLA1.571.43
AFLA1.30PITTOR1.070.98
ABOS1.18NYRPIT1.191.09
ADET1.18NYRPIT1.191.09
WCMON1.18NYRPIT1.191.09
AOTT1.10NYIMON1.261.17
AT.B.1.05FLANYI1.311.21
ATOR0.98WASFLA1.381.28
ABUF0.85WASFLA1.501.40
CDAL1.50ANAEDM1.02.079
CCHI1.25ST.LANA1.261.02
CMIN1.25ST.LANA1.261.02
WCST.L1.25ST.LANA1.261.02
WCNSH1.13L.A.NSH1.381.14
CCOL1.03DALST.L1.481.24
CWIN1.00DALST.L1.501.26
PL.A.1.35EDMVAN0.760.93
PARZ1.10WINNSH1.001.17
PSJS1.05SJSST.L1.051.21
PANA1.03ARZST.L1.071.23
PCGY1.00ARZST.L1.101.26
PVAN0.98NSHST.L1.111.28
PEDM0.88ST.LL.A.1.211.38


PLAYOFF PERCENTILES STEP 3: 


The word 'Probability' is misunderstood and misused by many and scares most.  By slowly adding the numbers from the previous chart, frequency can be turned into probabilities.


Each possible Pt/gm average from 0 to 2.0 for 10 game segments is shown in the Graph above, and the Table below is just another way of showing the same thing.  Along with showing how many times teams averaged 1.0 Pt/gm for a 10 game segment (19 times) the Table shows that 19 times was 15.8%of all the different Pt/gm possibilities.


The Cumulative Probability Column (CumP) just shows how many received a particular Pt/gm or less.

For the first half of Ten Game Segments teams averaged 1.0 PT/gm 45% of the time, or alternatively 55% of the time they averaged more than 1.0 Pt/gm in today's Every Body Gets Points NHL.

NHL Draft Analysis

Playoff Points  / Hot Stove 2016/01/16

​​PLAYOFF PERCENTILES STEP 2: 


The bar graph based on the Table  gives us useful information immediately.  First out of the 120 segments for all teams we see only 5 times has a team averaged more 1.6 pts/game for 10 games and at the other end only 7 times has a team averaged under 0.7 pts/gm for 10 games.  


6 of the 7 times teams have averaged less than 0.7 pts/gm in a 10 Game Segment did so in the teams's first 10 games of the season. 


Specifically, ANA, CBJ & TOR (0.40 pts/gm), CGY (0.50 pts/gm) and BUF, EDM (0.60 pts/gm) started very slowly.  Only MON with their 0.40 pts/gm  in games 31 to 40 did it later than their first games of the year.


Slow starting Anaheim with a current ratio of 1.03 is the  only turtle starter close to a Playoff spot, narrowly trailing SJS and their 1.05 ratio.


Interestingly, on the other end of the scale two of the highest 10 game segments came in the first 10 games of the season, belonging to MON & NYR (1.80 pts/gm). Florida's recent perfect 2.0 and Washington's consecutive 1.70's from games 21 to 40 round out the high liners. 


Hot starts have kept Montreal and New York in Playoff positions so far.


​However, generalizations about the lack of recovery from a bad start and the strong benefit of a good start will have to wait until later in the season.

Who Do I Have to Match?   Fans, Bloggers, GMs and Team Executives are looking at the standings daily and arguing about Playoff possibilities.  Bloggers have developed sophisticated prediction models based on upcoming schedule, injuries, etc which in turn are quoted by MSM looking for appealing content.


While acknowledging the models, we believe most Fans and many Executives want an answer on their team's chances without having to pour over all the minutiae of the models.  If I am a fan of teams such as the Flyers or Canucks I want to know how my team has to perform from now on to get into the Playoffs.  Do we have to be in the Top 10% of the League or Top 25%, or better yet,  'Who Do I Have to Play Like?'  Simplifying to that level will help everyone be more realistic.   And on the same note if my team is the Rangers or Wild, how likely is it that the Playoffs become a Wait Till Next Year proposition.


First we are going to look at 'Play Like Who' - which is straightforward.  Play Like Who:


  1. Looks at the points needed to make the Divisional and Wild Card for both Conferences at the 40 game point in the season.
  2. Translates these points into a Pt/gm ratio.
  3. Determine the points needed after 82 games based on the ratio.
  4. Calculates a new Pt/gm ratio for each team to reach the points needed.
  5. Puts in a table the team they have to play like over the last 42 games.


Second comparison involves calculating Playoff Percentiles.  Four fairly simple steps are required at the 40 game mark (All steps are calculated below):


  1. Determine how may points each of the 30 Teams had after each of the season's first four ten game segments and turn this into Pts/Gm.
  2. Count up how many times each possibility happened - for example how many times did teams get 12 points (1.2 Pts/Gm) and make a simple Bar Chart (or Histogram if you prefer).
  3. Do a Cumulative Probability Chart from your Count- much easier than it seems - ex. 40% of teams got at least 9 points all the way to 100%.
  4. ​Look at Division and Wild Cart Pts./GM. and multiply by 82 - figure out Pts needed and look back at Probability Chart.  Then?  Make Predictions.


CRITICIZE US NOW:

For our critics who claim our methodology to be simplistic.  We know and we don't care that:


  1. We are using 10 game segments to estimate 40+ left in the season,
  2. Ten game marks are arbitrary,
  3. Injuries, schedule, other stuff has not been factored in,
  4. Last 10 games should receive more weight,
  5. We are looking at it from 30,000 feet like many fans and in fact NHL executives.

​​PLAYOFF  PERCENTILES  STEP 1:

Teams after 40 games & in 10 game segments is an informative exercise as it quickly shows Hot, Cold, Consistent and Inconsistent teams.

(Playoff & Wildcard after 40 gms.)


DTeamSeason 31-40  21-30  11-20   1-10  
MWAS1.581.701.701.301.60
MNYI1.231.001.600.901.40
MNYR1.200.900.701.80

1.40

MNJD1.131.101.101.201.10
MPHI1.081.301.300.701.00
MPIT1.081.000.901.201.20
MCAR0.981.101.100.900.80
MCBJ0.830.901.001.000.40
AFLA1.302.001.200.901.10
ABOS1.180.901.501.001.30
ADET1.180.901.601.300.90
AMON1.180.601.101.201.80
AOTT1.100.901.001.301.20
AT.B.1.051.101.200.701.20
ATOR0.981.200.901.400.40
ABUF0.850.601.200.900.70
CDAL1.501.401..401.601.60
CCHI1.251.401.201.201.20
CMIN1.251.001.501.001.50
CST.L1.251.201.101.201.50
CNSH1.131.001.000.901.60
CCOL1.031.401.200.800.70
CWIN1.001.001.000.701.30
PL.A.1.351.401.601.001.40
PARZ1.101.400.901.001.10
PSJS1.051.100.701.401.00
PANA1.031.400.901.400.40
PCGY1.001.001.501.000.50
PVAN0.980.901.000.801.20
PEDM0.880.701.300.900.60


​​​​Points in Last 10 - Pt/gm - Count - % - Cum. %


Pts.Pt/gmCount Count % Cum % 
00.0000
10.1000
20.2000
30.3000
40.432.53
50.510.83
60.632.56
70.786.713
80.832.515
90.91714.229
101.01915.845
111.1119.254
121.21714.268
131.386.775
141.41310.886
151.554.290
161.675.896
171.721.798
181.821.799
191.90099
202.010.8100